{
  "_note": "事前登録の予測（第一感）。シミュレーションを1本も回す前に書いた。結果を見てから書き換えない。癖込みの補正は、名指しできる機構が無いので行わない（CLAUDE.md §10）。",
  "written_at": "2026-10-10T13:51:00+0900",
  "written_by": "shiraishi (イシ)",
  "predictions": [
    {"id": "P1", "condition": "baseline_t030", "metric": "final.mean_same", "kind": "range", "lo": 0.70, "hi": 0.80, "text": "基準 t=0.30 の最終の同色隣人率は 70〜80%"},
    {"id": "P2", "condition": "baseline_t030", "metric": "final.share_majority", "kind": "range", "lo": 0.85, "hi": 0.95, "text": "基準の最終で、隣の過半数が同色の住民は 85〜95%"},
    {"id": "P3", "condition": "baseline_t030", "metric": "final.dissimilarity", "kind": "range", "lo": 0.25, "hi": 0.45, "text": "基準の最終の分離度（10×10区画の相違指数）は 0.25〜0.45"},
    {"id": "P4", "condition": "baseline_t030", "metric": "steps", "kind": "range", "lo": 8, "hi": 25, "text": "基準は 8〜25 ステップで全員が満足して止まる"},
    {"id": "P5", "condition": "baseline_t033", "metric": "identical_to_t030", "kind": "bool", "value": true, "text": "t=0.33 は t=0.30 と全シードで完全に同じ結果になる（8人の隣人では 0.30〜0.33 の間に分数が無いので）"},
    {"id": "P6", "condition": "sweep_t010", "metric": "final.mean_same", "kind": "range", "lo": 0.50, "hi": 0.58, "text": "t=0.10 ではほぼ混ざったまま（同色隣人率 50〜58%）"},
    {"id": "P7", "condition": "sweep_t060", "metric": "converged_share", "kind": "range", "lo": 0.0, "hi": 0.0, "text": "t=0.60 は上限ステップ内に1シードも収束しない"},
    {"id": "P8", "condition": "indiff_030", "metric": "final.dissimilarity_ratio_to_baseline", "kind": "range", "lo": 0.35, "hi": 0.65, "text": "無頓着な住民30%で分離度は基準の 35〜65%（ほぼ半分）に下がる"},
    {"id": "P9", "condition": "indiff_010", "metric": "final.dissimilarity_ratio_to_baseline", "kind": "range", "lo": 0.70, "hi": 0.90, "text": "無頓着な住民10%で分離度は基準の 70〜90% に下がる"},
    {"id": "P10", "condition": "moveprob_020", "metric": "final.dissimilarity_ratio_to_baseline", "kind": "range", "lo": 0.90, "hi": 1.10, "text": "引越し確率0.2でも最終の分離度は基準と ±10% 以内"},
    {"id": "P11", "condition": "moveprob_020", "metric": "steps_ratio_to_baseline", "kind": "range", "lo": 3.5, "hi": 6.5, "text": "引越し確率0.2では収束までのステップが基準の 3.5〜6.5 倍"},
    {"id": "P12", "condition": "colors3_bounded", "metric": "final.dissimilarity_ratio_to_baseline", "kind": "range", "lo": 1.05, "hi": 2.0, "text": "3色にすると分離度は2色より上がる（最初に不満な住民が多いので）"},
    {"id": "P13", "condition": "colors2_torus", "metric": "final.dissimilarity_ratio_to_baseline", "kind": "range", "lo": 0.95, "hi": 1.05, "text": "ドーナツ型（端なし）でも分離度は長方形と ±5% 以内"}
  ]
}